Harris Takes a Slight National Lead over Trump in New Poll
Originally published by Domenico Montanaro for South Carolina Public Radio
Vice President Harris has upended the presidential race and has now built a 51%-48% lead over former President Trump, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.
That result is 4 points better than just after Harris got into the race two weeks ago when President Biden bowed out. Harris maintains a 3-point lead (48%-45%) when third-party choices are offered, too.
Fueling her rise are Black voters, white women with college degrees and women who identify as political independents. She is doing 20 to 30 points better with them than when she first got in, leading to improvement in the suburbs and with white voters overall.
On the issues, the negative views of the economy are not sticking to Harris the way they did Biden. Trump is still more trusted on the economy, but only by 3 points over Harris (51%-48%), compared to 9 points over Biden (54%-45%) in June.
Harris is also seeing improvement on how she would handle immigration, though Trump is still more trusted on that topic by 6 points (52%-46%). Harris’ best issue is handling abortion rights. She has a 15-point advantage on that.
The survey was conducted from Thursday through Sunday, before Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate. Marist interviewed 1,613 adults via cellphone, landline and online research panels in English and in Spanish. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points, meaning results could be roughly 3 points higher or lower.
Women, Black voters and independents have all moved toward Harris
Because of Harris’ gains with certain groups, she’s also improved her standing in the suburbs and with white voters overall.
But there’s now a 22-point gender gap, which is wider than the margin between Trump and Biden in July. Harris now leads by 13 points with women (55%-42%), but is losing men by 9 points (54%-45%). Considering the margin of error, those are close to the results of the 2020 presidential election, according to exit polls.
Harris’ biggest boost is coming with Black voters. She has gone from a 23-point lead with Black voters over Trump a couple of weeks ago, when many voters moved into the undecided camp, to a 54-point lead now. Harris is moving closer to territory where Democrats need to be with Black voters.